Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 83154.942404 87780.954071 92406.347576 97374.859971 102557.592505 107801.026367 113503.513073
2025-02-23 75467.178429 82546.719680 89824.781901 97855.896790 106459.021974 115388.015329 125345.344301
2025-03-02 69771.820999 78495.456045 87662.088242 97991.247158 109284.928416 121236.540786 134818.952196
2025-03-09 66196.719493 76234.828595 86975.144154 99286.953904 112974.005614 127686.913277 144661.739757
2025-03-16 62259.169160 73220.040203 85138.658264 99010.548215 114659.119761 131712.180003 151646.422700
2025-03-23 60011.256369 71889.492948 84989.597318 100439.577969 118089.936243 137551.599228 160557.278168
2025-03-30 57754.861570 70382.130822 84491.930188 101336.562166 120803.990474 142499.808458 168407.609230
2025-04-06 55319.120660 68522.290397 83460.080167 101499.187105 122574.470836 146297.667332 174894.346823
2025-04-13 53000.830818 66678.267619 82336.259988 101451.280577 124012.325500 149645.929209 180817.435218
2025-04-20 51740.955985 66015.309122 82531.655336 102891.984755 127142.866819 154926.233295 188975.555904
2025-04-27 50559.469963 65379.969129 82703.044645 104256.006156 130149.167988 160046.513838 196954.271414
2025-05-04 49117.674542 64360.570446 82355.626381 104947.653553 132317.273155 164159.487484 203745.611402
2025-05-11 47366.403865 62917.346522 81464.963163 104966.874468 133682.814408 167349.153828 209502.071948
2025-05-18 45976.707682 61873.254992 81019.279074 105493.474575 135639.985475 171240.695231 216114.945596
2025-05-25 44488.610665 60648.849354 80301.208769 105640.564017 137100.714968 174516.546691 221986.838251
2025-06-01 43687.449343 60261.643602 80594.987819 107018.196411 140058.991437 179605.445607 230072.587915
2025-06-08 42150.622313 58875.853350 79586.814282 106724.621478 140915.619165 182113.553447 235011.145366
2025-06-15 41532.126230 58654.196567 80030.446916 108243.096300 144021.813154 187383.559990 243354.809131
2025-06-22 40697.020556 58117.035989 80044.868019 109196.085051 146407.997965 191768.258097 250628.158233
2025-06-29 39564.323350 57149.017602 79471.774716 109368.853581 147788.497428 194897.007864 256352.468879
2025-07-06 38392.239724 56091.408622 78748.868520 109317.959945 148861.024372 197628.440040 261582.285882
2025-07-13 37939.641021 55984.174046 79253.254259 110848.385681 151952.564147 202899.110970 270012.841164
2025-07-20 37476.443967 55844.397060 79701.176813 112297.128268 154940.164108 208051.721668 278324.898202